Technology Paradigm Assessment using a Decision Support Model

Abstract

Thinking about the coming of a new technology paradigm means thinking about a number of things, from managerial decisions and strategic evaluations to design choices and technology-related choices. In order to address this latter viewpoint, the current study puts forth a model that calculates the likelihood that creative goods will succeed based on design choices. The emphasis on the design choices that give rise to significant changes is not antagonistic but rather a supplement to the conventional forecasting viewpoints that take environmental or process management aspects into account. The model is built on a database of previous inventions that were successful and failed. This information is used to construct a logistic regression model, the results of which can be useful to managers and designers alike. The former receive guidance on how certain design decisions impact innovation uptake and product perception, while the latter receive assistance in determining which initiatives hold the greatest promise. Two digital product cases serve as examples of the model.