Global Regions, Biological Diversity, and Urban Land to Significance

Abstract

As the world's urban population is expected to grow by 2.5 billion over the next 30 years, urban land conversions are likely to become a bigger cause of habitat and species loss. It is vital to gain a better understanding of the potential locations and mechanisms for these biodiversity losses in order to mitigate their impacts. In this study, we assess the projected habitat loss due to urban land expansion for 30,393 species of terrestrial vertebrates from 2015 to 2050 across three shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) scenarios using a recently developed suite of land-use projections. We discover that for about one-third (26–39%) of the species evaluated, urban land expansion is a contributing driver of habitat loss (5% of total loss). Urban land is a direct cause of species imperilment for up to 855 species (2–3% of those assessed), accounting for at least 25% of a net habitat loss of 10% or more. Sub-Saharan Africa, South America, Mesoamerica, and Southeast Asia are the major developing tropical regions where urban clusters are most likely to threaten species owing to anticipated expansion. Our findings imply that methods for reducing the effects of urban land could improve international agreements for the preservation of biodiversity. To mitigate the effects predicted by our analysis, cooperative, global action that prioritises vulnerable species and regions may constitute an effective tactic.