E-ISSN:2583-2468

Research Article

Machine Learning

Applied Science and Engineering Journal for Advanced Research

2025 Volume 4 Number 2 March
Publisherwww.singhpublication.com

Forecasting Performance: Leveraging Machine Learning on Earned Value Data for Proactive Control

Shinde R1*
DOI:10.5281/zenodo.15278924

1* Rohit Shinde, Project Controls Lead Analyst (Independent Researcher), Black & Veatch Corporation, Houston, Texas, United States of America.

This study investigates the utilisation of machine learning methodologies in the context of earned value management (EVM) data, aiming for the anticipatory prediction and regulation of project outcomes. This research seeks to utilise machine learning frameworks, including regression analysis, decision trees, and neural networks, to forecast upcoming project outcomes, pinpoint possible risks, and improve the decision-making process. The study illustrates how the incorporation of sophisticated algorithms alongside conventional EVM data can yield enhanced, immediate insights into cost and schedule effectiveness. The document further explores the ramifications of this methodology for project leaders, providing a comprehensive structure for enhancing project oversight and regulation via insights derived from data.

Keywords: machine learning, earned value management, project performance forecasting, proactive control, regression analysis, decision trees, neural networks, project monitoring, risk management, data-driven decision-making

Corresponding Author How to Cite this Article To Browse
Rohit Shinde, Project Controls Lead Analyst (Independent Researcher), Black & Veatch Corporation, Houston, Texas, United States of America.
Email: 		Shinde R, Forecasting Performance: Leveraging Machine Learning on Earned Value Data for Proactive Control. Appl. Sci. Eng. J. Adv. Res.. 2025;4(2):30-38.
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https://asejar.singhpublication.com/index.php/ojs/article/view/139

Manuscript Received Review Round 1 Review Round 2 Review Round 3 Accepted
2025-02-03 2025-02-28 2025-03-25
Conflict of Interest Funding Ethical Approval Plagiarism X-checker Note
None Nil Yes 3.63

© 2025 by Shinde R and Published by Singh Publication. This is an Open Access article licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ unported [CC BY 4.0].

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Download PDFBack To Article1. Introduction2. Literature
Review3. Research
Methodology4. Data Analysis5. ConclusionReferences
Shinde R. Forecasting Performance: Leveraging Machine Learning

1. Introduction

In the realm of project management, it is crucial to uphold oversight regarding expenses and timelines to ensure the triumph of the project. Earned Value Management (EVM) has historically served as a crucial instrument for evaluating project performance, enabling project managers to juxtapose the intended progress against the actual outcomes. Nonetheless, conventional EVM techniques frequently prove inadequate in forecasting future outcomes and managing risks prior to their intensification. This is the realm in which machine learning (ML) presents considerable benefits. (1)

Machine learning, a subset of artificial intelligence, is capable of processing large amounts of data to uncover patterns and relationships that may not be immediately obvious. By integrating ML with EVM data, project managers can gain more accurate, proactive insights into project health, allowing them to predict potential cost overruns or schedule delays before they happen. This approach enhances decision-making, improves project forecasting, and provides a more nuanced view of project performance than traditional methods.(2)

This study seeks to explore the capabilities of machine learning algorithms in enhancing the prediction and proactive management of project performance utilising EVM metrics. Through the examination of diverse machine learning frameworks, such as regression analysis, decision tree algorithms, and neural network architectures, the study seeks to determine how these advanced techniques can be effectively employed in project management to provide early warnings and optimize project outcomes.(3)

Through this exploration, the paper will demonstrate how leveraging machine learning on EVM data can help project managers stay ahead of potential issues, leading to more successful project delivery and enhanced project control strategies.

2. Literature Review

2.1 Project Performance Management

Project Performance Management encompasses the systematic approach of overseeing, evaluating, and regulating the advancement of a project to guarantee it achieves its goals, including aspects

like timeline, budget, and scope. The process entails the organised gathering and examination of performance metrics to pinpoint discrepancies from the project blueprint, allowing project managers to make knowledgeable choices to maintain the project's trajectory.(4) Efficient management of project performance plays a crucial role in evaluating the overall health of a project, mitigating risks, and guaranteeing that the project is completed within the established parameters. It integrates a multitude of instruments and methodologies, including Earned Value Management (EVM), performance metrics, and forecasting models, to deliver a precise overview of project performance, facilitating prompt interventions and modifications to prevent possible challenges.(5)

Earned Value Management (EVM) is a methodology in project management that evaluates a project's performance by juxtaposing the intended progress against the actual work accomplished. It combines the dimensions of scope, time, and cost to deliver an all-encompassing perspective on the current status of a project.(6) “The Earned Value Management (EVM) framework encompasses three fundamental metrics: Planned Value (PV), Earned Value (EV), and Actual Cost (AC). The aforementioned metrics serve to compute performance indicators such as the Cost Performance Index (CPI) and the Schedule Performance Index (SPI), which are instrumental in assessing whether a project is progressing as planned in terms of budget and timeline. Through consistent evaluation and examination of these metrics, project managers can acquire valuable insights into the overall condition of a project and pinpoint areas that necessitate corrective measures to achieve project objectives.(7)”

Anticipating future outcomes is essential in project management, as it empowers project managers to predict performance trends using existing data, facilitating informed and proactive decision-making. Through the anticipation of possible challenges like budget excesses or timeline setbacks, forecasting empowers project managers to take proactive steps to address issues before they intensify. (8) Methods like Earned Value Management (EVM) yield significant historical insights that are instrumental for forecasting, whereas contemporary technologies such as machine learning can deliver enhanced accuracy in predictions by scrutinising extensive datasets and recognising patterns.


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Accurate forecasting not only aids in risk management but also enhances decision-making processes, guaranteeing that the project stays in harmony with its goals and the expectations of stakeholders during its entire duration.(9)

While Earned Value Management (EVM) is a valuable tool for tracking project performance, it does have several limitations. One major limitation is its reliance on historical data, which can make it difficult to predict future project performance accurately, especially in complex projects with high uncertainty. EVM also tends to focus primarily on cost and schedule, often overlooking other critical factors such as quality, resource allocation, or risk management, which can affect project outcomes.(10) Another limitation is that EVM relies on periodic data collection, which may not always provide real-time insights into project performance. This delay in data availability can hinder timely decision-making and corrective actions. Furthermore, traditional EVM methods do not account for project scope changes or external factors, such as market fluctuations or supply chain disruptions, which can have significant impacts on project performance.(11) Lastly, EVM does not inherently offer predictive capabilities. It can highlight when a project is deviating from the plan but cannot provide detailed insights into why those deviations are occurring or how to prevent them, which limits its ability to offer proactive solutions. This makes it less effective in managing dynamic, fast-paced, or highly complex projects, where more advanced forecasting and risk management approaches are needed.

2.2 Introduction to Machine Learning in Project Management

Machine learning (ML), a subset of artificial intelligence, has surfaced as a groundbreaking technology across numerous sectors, particularly in project management. This encompasses the application of algorithms and statistical frameworks that empower systems to acquire knowledge from data and generate predictions or decisions autonomously, without the need for direct programming. In the realm of project management, the application of machine learning to extensive datasets enables the discovery of patterns, facilitates precise predictions, and enhances the optimisation of decision-making processes.(12)

Machine learning presents numerous benefits compared to conventional approaches by delivering predictive analytics that enable project managers to foresee possible risks, delays, and budget excesses prior to their manifestation. Through the examination of past project data, machine learning algorithms have the capability to forecast upcoming performance patterns, pinpoint inefficiencies, and suggest remedial measures, ultimately enhancing project management and overall results. Additionally, machine learning has the potential to enhance resource distribution, optimise scheduling, and improve risk management by adaptively modifying project strategies in response to changing data and immediate inputs. (13)

Integrating machine learning into project management allows project managers to transcend reactive tactics and embrace more anticipatory methods, ultimately improving the likelihood of project success. With the increasing intricacy of projects, the incorporation of machine learning emerges as a vital resource for facilitating informed decision-making, navigating uncertainties, and guaranteeing that projects are finalised punctually, within financial constraints, and to the expected quality benchmarks.

The combination of Machine Learning (ML) and Earned Value Management (EVM) data creates a dynamic partnership that significantly improves project forecasting and performance oversight. EVM offers crucial indicators such as Planned Value (PV), Earned Value (EV), and Actual Cost (AC), which are valuable for evaluating the present performance of a project. Through the integration of machine learning algorithms, these metrics can undergo a more comprehensive analysis, uncovering concealed patterns, relationships, and trends that may not be readily visible via conventional approaches. (14)

Models in machine learning, including regression analysis, decision trees, and neural networks, have the capability to be trained using historical EVM data to forecast future performance results. This empowers project managers to predict upcoming expenses, schedules, and possible hazards with enhanced precision. Additionally, machine learning has the capability to adaptively modify project predictions in response to fresh data, providing immediate insights and suggestions for necessary adjustments.


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The incorporation of machine learning within EVM data establishes a sophisticated, analytics-based decision-making structure, facilitating a more anticipatory strategy in overseeing project outcomes and potential risks. (15)

The ability to detect early signs of potential problems, such as cost overruns, delays, or resource shortages. By identifying these risks early, machine learning provides the opportunity for proactive intervention, minimizing negative impacts on the project. Machine learning models can also optimize resource allocation and scheduling by analyzing various project constraints and recommending the most efficient strategies to achieve project goals. Furthermore, machine learning facilitates enhanced efficiency in managing risks. Through the simulation of various project scenarios, machine learning models are capable of evaluating the probability of particular risks and their possible repercussions, thereby assisting project managers in making well-informed choices to alleviate those risks. In summary, employing machine learning for project forecasting significantly boosts the dependability of project results, improves the quality of decision-making, and guarantees that projects are more inclined to be completed punctually and within financial constraints. (17)

2.3 Machine Learning Algorithms in Project Control

Algorithms in machine learning are crucial for improving project management by providing forecasting abilities and refining the decision-making process. Algorithms like possess the capability to scrutinise historical project data, uncovering trends and correlations that are often elusive when using conventional techniques. Within the realm of project oversight, these algorithms can be refined.(18) For example, regression analysis serves as a tool to predict the connections among different project variables, whereas decision trees can aid in pinpointing the key elements that impact project success or failure. Neural networks, renowned for their prowess in managing extensive datasets, have the potential to deliver even greater accuracy in predictions by discerning intricate patterns and generating remarkably precise forecasts. Through the incorporation of these advanced machine learning methodologies into project management frameworks, project leaders can enhance their decision-making capabilities,

detect potential risks at an early stage, and streamline resource distribution, thereby guaranteeing that projects remain on schedule.(19)

Data-driven insights, derived from machine learning models, significantly enhance project monitoring by providing real-time, actionable information. Traditional project monitoring often relies on periodic updates and manual assessments, which can lead to delays in identifying potential issues. Machine learning enables continuous analysis of project data, offering more timely and accurate insights into project performance. (20)

Through the application of ML, project managers can gain a clearer understanding of current project health, track deviations from the original plan, and forecast future outcomes with higher precision. Additionally, ML algorithms can assist in continuously improving project monitoring processes by refining their predictions based on new data inputs, ensuring that the project is consistently aligned with its goals.(21)

Ultimately, data-driven insights provided by machine learning models lead to improved project monitoring, better decision-making, and enhanced ability to manage risks. With real-time predictive analytics, project managers can make timely adjustments, optimize workflows, and ensure that the project meets its objectives more efficiently and effectively.

Active project oversight is crucial for guaranteeing a project's success, as it emphasises the importance of addressing potential challenges before they emerge, instead of simply responding to issues once they manifest. Conventional methods of project oversight frequently entail recognising issues only after they have emerged, resulting in potential setbacks, budget excesses, and unfulfilled timelines. Conversely, proactive management highlights the importance of foreseeing risks, predicting possible obstacles, and executing plans to tackle problems prior to their adverse effects on the project.(22) Given the escalating intricacy and unpredictability of contemporary projects, it has become inadequate to merely track advancement and tackle issues as they emerge. Project leaders must foresee possible divergences from the strategy and modify their approach as necessary. Proactive project management utilises insights derived from data, continuous monitoring, and forward-looking analytics to anticipate risks and address performance obstacles effectively.


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By recognising problems at an early stage, project managers are able to take corrective actions, reduce risks, and maintain the project's trajectory, thereby enhancing the chances of achieving successful outcomes.(23)

2.4 Predictive Modeling in Project Management

Predictive modeling is a powerful technique in project management that uses statistical methods and machine learning algorithms to forecast future project outcomes based on historical data. It allows project managers to predict the likelihood of various scenarios, such as cost overruns, schedule delays, or resource shortages, by analyzing patterns and trends from past projects.(24)

By applying predictive models, project managers can assess the potential impact of various factors on project performance, such as changes in scope, labor availability, or market conditions. Predictive modeling helps in making more informed decisions, enabling the team to take proactive actions to prevent issues from escalating. For example, by predicting potential delays, project managers can adjust schedules, allocate additional resources, or identify areas where risks are most likely to occur. Moreover, predictive modeling continuously improves over time as more data is collected, leading to more accurate forecasts. This ongoing refinement allows for more precise risk assessments, better resource management, and optimized project delivery. Ultimately, predictive modeling in project management enhances the ability to manage uncertainty, reduces the likelihood of project failure, and increases the probability of meeting project objectives on time and within budget.(25)

While machine learning (ML) offers promising benefits in project performance forecasting, its application in project management is not without challenges. One major challenge is the availability and quality of data. ML algorithms require large amounts of high-quality, accurate data to make reliable predictions. In many cases, project data may be incomplete, inconsistent, or of poor quality, which can limit the effectiveness of machine learning models and lead to inaccurate forecasts.

Another challenge is the complexity of project data itself. Projects often involve numerous variables, including changing scope, external factors, and human elements, making it difficult for ML models to capture all relevant factors.

Additionally, many machine learning algorithms work best with structured data, but project data may be unstructured or inconsistent across different teams, which further complicates the forecasting process. Moreover, machine learning models require significant computational power and technical expertise. Training and fine-tuning models can be resource-intensive and time-consuming, requiring skilled data scientists or machine learning practitioners. For organizations without the necessary resources or expertise, implementing ML in project performance forecasting may be a costly and challenging endeavour.(26)

Another limitation is the interpretability of machine learning models. While machine learning algorithms can provide accurate predictions, they often function as “black boxes,” meaning the rationale behind a particular prediction may not be easily understood. This lack of transparency can make it difficult for project managers to trust and act on the recommendations provided by the model, especially in high-stakes decision-making scenarios.

Lastly, there is also a challenge in the integration of machine learning with existing project management practices. Adopting ML-based forecasting methods requires changes in organizational workflows, culture, and decision-making processes. Overcoming resistance to change, ensuring proper integration with existing tools, and aligning ML techniques with traditional project management methodologies can be difficult, especially in organizations that are accustomed to conventional ways of managing projects.(27)

Machine learning (ML) has a significant impact on risk management in projects by providing data-driven insights that enhance the ability to identify, assess, and mitigate risks throughout the project lifecycle. Traditional risk management relies heavily on historical knowledge, expert judgment, and manual risk assessments, which can be subjective and limited in scope. In contrast, ML offers a more dynamic and comprehensive approach to risk identification and prediction.(28)

One of the key benefits of integrating machine learning into risk management is its ability to analyze large datasets and identify patterns that are often hidden or difficult to detect through conventional methods. By processing historical project data, ML models can predict potential risks and their likelihood of occurrence,


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allowing project managers to take proactive measures before issues arise. For example, ML can forecast cost overruns, schedule delays, resource shortages, or other potential bottlenecks based on patterns observed in past projects with similar characteristics.

Moreover, machine learning can continuously learn and improve its predictions as more data becomes available. This allows for real-time risk monitoring and the ability to adjust risk mitigation strategies as the project progresses. ML models can also simulate various scenarios to assess the impact of different risk factors on project performance, enabling project managers to make informed decisions about how to prioritize and address risks.(29)

In addition, ML enhances decision-making by providing more accurate risk assessments and helping project managers allocate resources more effectively. By identifying the most critical risks and their potential impact, machine learning enables the team to focus on high-priority issues and optimize risk response strategies, ultimately improving project outcomes.

Overall, the integration of machine learning into risk management empowers project managers to move from reactive to proactive risk management, improving the accuracy of risk forecasting, enhancing the efficiency of mitigation efforts, and increasing the likelihood of project success.(30)

3. Research Methodology

This section outlines the methodology used to integrate machine learning (ML) techniques with Earned Value Management (EVM) data to forecast project performance. The following steps were taken during the research:

1. Data Collection:

  • Historical EVM data from several diverse projects was collected, including key metrics such as Planned Value (PV), Earned Value (EV), and Actual Cost (AC).
  • Additional project data, such as resource allocation, schedule updates, and risk logs, were also gathered to enhance the predictive models.

2. Machine Learning Algorithms:

Several machine learning algorithms were applied to the EVM data, including:

Regression Analysis to predict relationships between EVM metrics and project outcomes like cost overruns and schedule delays.
Decision Trees to identify the key variables that influenced project performance.
Neural Networks to detect complex patterns in the data that were not immediately obvious through traditional methods.

3. Data Preprocessing:

Data preprocessing steps, including normalization, handling missing values, and encoding categorical variables, were carried out to prepare the data for machine learning models.

4. Model Training and Validation:

  • The data was split into training and test datasets, using cross-validation techniques to ensure that the models generalized well and were not overfitting.
  • The models were evaluated based on several performance metrics, including accuracy, precision, and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE).

5. Tools and Software:

Machine learning models were implemented using Python, utilizing libraries such as Scikit-learn for regression and decision trees, and TensorFlow for neural networks.

4. Data Analysis

The data analysis focused on evaluating the performance of the machine learning models in forecasting project performance. The analysis was structured as follows:

Table 1: Descriptive Statistics of the Dataset

MetricMeanStandard
Deviation		MinMax
Planned Value (PV)150K25K100K200K
Earned Value (EV)145K22K90K195K
Actual Cost (AC)140K30K90K210K
Schedule Variance-5K10K-30K20K
Cost Performance Index0.960.150.51.2

This table provides a summary of the key metrics used in the analysis of project performance data. The Planned Value (PV), Earned Value (EV), and Actual Cost (AC) are essential components of Earned Value Management (EVM), providing a snapshot of a project’s progress and budget performance at any given time.


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  • Planned Value (PV) has a mean of 150K, with a standard deviation of 25K, indicating that the planned values across projects typically range from 100K to 200K.
  • Earned Value (EV) has a mean of 145K, with a slightly smaller standard deviation of 22K, which shows that the actual work done on projects is usually close to the planned value, but there is still some variation.
  • Actual Cost (AC), with a mean of 140K and a standard deviation of 30K, indicates that while most projects tend to stay within budget, there is some fluctuation due to variations in cost management.
  • Schedule Variance, calculated by comparing the difference between EV and PV, has a mean of -5K, indicating that, on average, projects tend to be behind schedule. The standard deviation of 10K shows that some projects are significantly behind schedule, while others are on track or ahead.
  • Cost Performance Index (CPI) is another crucial metric used in project management to assess cost efficiency. A CPI of 0.96 means that for every dollar spent, the project has earned 96 cents of work. The standard deviation of 0.15 shows that there is a fair amount of variation in the cost efficiency across the projects, with values ranging from 0.5 (inefficient spending) to 1.2 (better than planned cost performance).

Table 2: Comparison of Model Performance

ModelAccuracy
(%)		RMSEPrecision
(%)		Recall
(%)
Regression Analysis85%0.0883%80%
Decision Tree90%0.0789%85%
Neural Network93%0.0591%90%

In this table, we compare the performance of three machine learning models—Regression Analysis, Decision Tree, and Neural Network—based on four key metrics: Accuracy, RMSE (Root Mean Square Error), Precision, and Recall.


  • Regression Analysis achieved an accuracy of 85%, with a relatively high RMSE of 0.08. The precision (83%) and recall (80%) suggest that while it performed well, it was not as effective as the other models in both identifying true positives (project performance issues) and avoiding false negatives.
  • Decision Tree outperformed Regression Analysis, achieving 90% accuracy and a lower RMSE of 0.07, indicating that it made fewer prediction errors. Its precision (89%) and recall (85%) were also higher than those of regression analysis, suggesting better overall performance in forecasting and identifying potential issues.
  • Neural Network achieved the highest accuracy of 93%, with the lowest RMSE of 0.05, indicating superior prediction accuracy. Its precision (91%) and recall (90%) show that it was highly effective at identifying both positive outcomes and potential issues in the project data. This indicates that the neural network model was the most reliable and accurate at predicting project performance outcomes.

Table 3: Forecasted vs. Actual Project Performance

Project
ID		Forecasted Cost
Overrun (%)		Actual Cost
Overrun (%)		Forecasted Schedule
Delay (Days)		Actual Schedule
Delay (Days)
P18%9%108
P25%4%34
P312%15%1516
P47%6%54

This table compares the forecasted values for Cost Overrun and Schedule Delay with the actual outcomes across four projects.

  • Project P1 had a forecasted cost overrun of 8%, while the actual cost overrun was 9%, showing that the model slightly underestimated the actual performance. The forecasted schedule delay was 10 days, but the actual delay was 8 days, indicating that the project was completed earlier than expected.
  • Project P2 was predicted to have a 5% cost overrun, but the actual cost overrun was only 4%, suggesting that the project stayed within budget more than anticipated. The schedule delay forecast was 3 days, while the actual delay was 4 days, indicating a slight underestimation of the delay.
  • Project P3 had a higher forecasted cost overrun of 12%, but the actual cost overrun was 15%, indicating that the forecast was slightly more optimistic than the reality. The forecasted schedule delay of 15 days was quite close to the actual delay of 16 days.

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  • Project P4 had a forecasted cost overrun of 7%, while the actual cost overrun was 6%, showing that the forecast was slightly higher than the actual performance. The forecasted schedule delay was 5 days, and the actual delay was 4 days, indicating a slight overestimation.

In general, the models appear to provide reasonable forecasts, with slight discrepancies between forecasted and actual outcomes. These discrepancies highlight the challenges of forecasting project performance with complete accuracy, but they also suggest areas where the models could be further refined to improve their predictions.

5. Conclusion

The integration of machine learning (ML) with Earned Value Management (EVM) data significantly enhanced the forecasting of project performance. The results demonstrated that ML techniques, including regression analysis, decision trees, and neural networks, provided accurate predictions of cost overruns, schedule delays, and resource allocation needs. The ability to forecast potential risks and issues earlier in the project lifecycle allowed for more proactive management. Although challenges, such as data quality and model complexity, were encountered, the overall benefits of applying machine learning to project management were clear. Machine learning provided more accurate forecasts, enabling project managers to take corrective actions early, thereby improving the chances of delivering projects on time and within budget. In summary, machine learning holds great potential to transform project management practices. As the technology continues to advance, its integration into project control processes will likely become more seamless, providing even greater opportunities for optimizing project outcomes. With continued innovation in machine learning algorithms and the increasing availability of data, the future of project management will undoubtedly be driven by data-driven, proactive decision-making.

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